2013-07-11

Kipro zona


Verslo žinioms raportuojant, Šadžiui sapaliojant apie žiaurozonos bankų sąjungą (kurią buvo sutarta įsivesti 2013 pradžioje, bet Vokietija atšoko ir iki šiol atšokusi), Kipre euras nutrupėjo. Kapitalo kontrolė, kurios įvedimo metu kovą buvo šnekama apie "savaitės" laikinumą, taip ir nepanaikinta.

Kipras tapo eurozonos bankų problemų sprendimo etalonu. Bankas uždaromas, jo filialuose užsienyje atsiskaitoma su prioritetiniais klientais, visiems kitiems - garantuotų sumų grąžinimas, bet su kapitalo kontrole, likusių - kapitalizavimas.

Yra cinikų, manančių, kad taip "patvarkius" kokį Ispanijos banką, Eurozona lehman'izuosis į bankų panikos apimtų teritorijų su kapitalo kontrolėmis sąjungą. Viliojanti perspektyva.

Andrew Higgins, NYT - Currency Controls in Cyprus Increase Worry About Euro System
With a gross domestic product of about $23 billion and shrinking, Cyprus is little more than a rounding error in the $9.5 trillion euro zone economy. But Cyprus is also the first nation using the euro to restrict the flow of capital, raising a crucial question: Has the breakup of the euro zone — something European leaders have been struggling to prevent for three years with frantic summit meetings in Brussels and a series of bailout packages worth hundreds of billions of euros — in fact already started?

President Nicos Anastasiades of Cyprus certainly thinks so. “Actually, we are already out of the euro zone,” he said, citing restrictions on the movement of euros from Cyprus as evidence that his country’s money now has a different status and value from that in France, Germany and the 14 other European Union nations that use the currency. [...]

The rules of the European Union, enshrined in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, ban restrictions on the movement of capital, but the measures by Cyprus have been endorsed by the European Central Bank and the union’s executive arm, the European Commission, as essential to prevent money from fleeing the country. While the European Central Bank declined to comment on the Cyprus situation, officials in Brussels say they remain firmly committed to maintaining the euro as a single currency.

Nevertheless, many financial experts say Cyprus has, in effect, made a “silent, hidden exit” from the euro, said Guntram B. Wolff, the director of Bruegel, a Brussels research group. Despite a softening of restrictions, he added, “the euro in Cyprus is still not the same as a euro in Frankfurt.
Maastricht'o sutartis, ištikus Kipro krizei, ignoruojama. Kokia tikimybė, kad per eilinį paaštrėjimą bus laikomasi (jeigu bus pasirašytos) bankų sąjungos sutarčių?