Rodomi pranešimai su žymėmis Cyprus. Rodyti visus pranešimus
Rodomi pranešimai su žymėmis Cyprus. Rodyti visus pranešimus

2013-07-26

Ellen Brown apie Europos bankų atsakomybės slinktį

by Ellen Brown
Think Your Money is Safe in an Insured Bank Account? Think Again.
When Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters on March 13, 2013, that the Cyprus deposit confiscation scheme would be the template for future European bank bailouts, the statement caused so much furor that he had to retract it. But the “bail in” of depositor funds is now being made official EU policy. On June 26, 2013, The New York Times reported that EU finance ministers have agreed on a plan that shifts the responsibility for bank losses from governments to bank investors, creditors and uninsured depositors.

Insured deposits (those under €100,000, or about $130,000) will allegedly be “fully protected.” But protected by whom? The national insurance funds designed to protect them are inadequate to cover another system-wide banking crisis, and the court of the European Free Trade Association ruled in the case of Iceland that the insurance funds were not intended to cover that sort of systemic collapse.
Shifting the burden of a major bank collapse from the blameless taxpayer to the blameless depositor is another case of robbing Peter to pay Paul, while the real perpetrators carry on with their risky, speculative banking schemes [...]

Although the bail-in template did not hit the news until it was imposed on Cyprus in March 2013, it is a global model that goes back to a directive from the Financial Stability Board (an arm of the Bank for International Settlements) dated October 2011, endorsed at the G20 summit in December 2011. In 2009, the G20 nations agreed to be regulated by the Financial Stability Board; and bail-in policies have now been established for the US, UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada, among other countries. (See earlier articles here and here.)

The EU bail-in plan, which still needs the approval of the European Parliament, would allow European leaders to dodge something they evidently regret having signed, the agreement known as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who played a leading role in imposing the deposit confiscation plan on Cyprus, said on March 13 that “the aim is for the ESM never to have to be used.”

Passed with little publicity in January 2012, the ESM imposes an open-ended debt on EU member governments, putting taxpayers on the hook for whatever the ESM’s overseers demand. Two days before its ratification on July 1, 2012, the agreement was modified to make the permanent bailout fund cover the bailout of private banks. It was a bankers’ dream – a permanent, mandated bailout of private banks by governments. But EU governments are now balking at that heavy commitment.

In Cyprus, the confiscation of depositor funds was not only approved but mandated by the EU, along with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF. They told the Cypriots that deposits below €100,000 in two major bankrupt banks would be subject to a 6.75 percent levy or “haircut,” while those over €100,000 would be hit with a 9.99 percent “fine.” When the Cyprus national legislature overwhelming rejected the levy, the insured deposits under €100,000 were spared; but it was at the expense of the uninsured deposits, which took a much larger hit, estimated at about 60 percent of the deposited funds [...]

While the insured depositors escaped in Cyprus, they might not fare so well in a bank collapse of the sort seen in 2008-09 [...]
Vienintelis įmanomas bankų "stabilumo mechanizmas" Europoje yra ECB.

Bet ne kontrolės. Pradinis bankų sąjungos planas ir buvo tas dvi funkcijas - draudimą ir kontrolę sujungti po ECB stogu, taip sukuriant vieningą pajėgią europinę bankų sistemą. Tai būtų buvusi grandiozinė reforma su savo politiniais pavojais, kurie visiems pasirodė per dideli.

Todėl konstruojamas simuliakras - pusiau Kipro, pusiau Islandijos pusiau rogės, pusiau vežėčios. Raminančios propagandinės pasakos fone nebaigtą konstrukciją tempia pavargusios ekonomikos kuinas, nors girgžda, bet važiuoja. Iki nuokalnėlės.

2013-07-11

Kipro zona


Verslo žinioms raportuojant, Šadžiui sapaliojant apie žiaurozonos bankų sąjungą (kurią buvo sutarta įsivesti 2013 pradžioje, bet Vokietija atšoko ir iki šiol atšokusi), Kipre euras nutrupėjo. Kapitalo kontrolė, kurios įvedimo metu kovą buvo šnekama apie "savaitės" laikinumą, taip ir nepanaikinta.

Kipras tapo eurozonos bankų problemų sprendimo etalonu. Bankas uždaromas, jo filialuose užsienyje atsiskaitoma su prioritetiniais klientais, visiems kitiems - garantuotų sumų grąžinimas, bet su kapitalo kontrole, likusių - kapitalizavimas.

Yra cinikų, manančių, kad taip "patvarkius" kokį Ispanijos banką, Eurozona lehman'izuosis į bankų panikos apimtų teritorijų su kapitalo kontrolėmis sąjungą. Viliojanti perspektyva.

Andrew Higgins, NYT - Currency Controls in Cyprus Increase Worry About Euro System
With a gross domestic product of about $23 billion and shrinking, Cyprus is little more than a rounding error in the $9.5 trillion euro zone economy. But Cyprus is also the first nation using the euro to restrict the flow of capital, raising a crucial question: Has the breakup of the euro zone — something European leaders have been struggling to prevent for three years with frantic summit meetings in Brussels and a series of bailout packages worth hundreds of billions of euros — in fact already started?

President Nicos Anastasiades of Cyprus certainly thinks so. “Actually, we are already out of the euro zone,” he said, citing restrictions on the movement of euros from Cyprus as evidence that his country’s money now has a different status and value from that in France, Germany and the 14 other European Union nations that use the currency. [...]

The rules of the European Union, enshrined in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, ban restrictions on the movement of capital, but the measures by Cyprus have been endorsed by the European Central Bank and the union’s executive arm, the European Commission, as essential to prevent money from fleeing the country. While the European Central Bank declined to comment on the Cyprus situation, officials in Brussels say they remain firmly committed to maintaining the euro as a single currency.

Nevertheless, many financial experts say Cyprus has, in effect, made a “silent, hidden exit” from the euro, said Guntram B. Wolff, the director of Bruegel, a Brussels research group. Despite a softening of restrictions, he added, “the euro in Cyprus is still not the same as a euro in Frankfurt.
Maastricht'o sutartis, ištikus Kipro krizei, ignoruojama. Kokia tikimybė, kad per eilinį paaštrėjimą bus laikomasi (jeigu bus pasirašytos) bankų sąjungos sutarčių?

2013-06-19

Bankų gelbėjimo PSI iškrypimas

Santrumpa PSI reiškia private sector involvement. Procedūra, kuomet valstybės ar banko nemokumas sprendžiamas nurašant dalį įsipareigojimų privatiems kreditoriams / investuotojams.

Gudrūs amerikiečiai to nedaro niekad. Kvaili lietuviai tai daro visada. Dėl eurozonos kurį laiką buvo neaišku. Iš pradžių, prasidėjus Graikijos krizei, neigė net galimybę. Tada nurašė privačiam sektoriui didelę dalį Graikijos vyriausybės skolų ir garantavo, kad tai vienintelis ir išimtinis kartas. Vėl panaudojo PSI sužlugdydami Kipro (nuo Graikijos skolų nurašymo masyviai nukentėjusią) bankų sistemą ir ekonomiką. Kad niekas nebeturėtų iliuzijų, šviežutėlis eurogrupės vadukas Dijsselbloem, duodamas interviu FT, nepaneigė, kad panašūs bankiniai sprendimai po Kipro bus "template". Kitą dieną paneigė - esą nesupratęs žodžio reikšmės. Už kiek laiko paaiškėjo, kad "blueprint".

Vieno tokio pinigus suprantančio Willem Buiter vertinimu, eurozonos bankų balansuose slepiasi maždaug 1-3 trilijonai neapskaitytų nuostolių. Sistemos būklė - kaip "Ūkio banke" prieš uždarymą: kapitalo beveik pakanka, tik milijardas minuse.

Nu tai problemą reikia spręsti. Galima dviem būdais - arba sistemiškai, arba atidėliojant. Atidėliojimas irgi būna nevienodas. 2012 m. birželio Merkel-Monti susitarimas - to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns, strong commitment to do what is necessary to ensure the financial stability of the euro area, in particular by using the existing EFSF/ESM instruments in a flexible and efficient manner - sustiprintas Draghi OMT deklaracijos, skambėjo gana padoriai...

... bet pažiūrėjus iš arčiau, matosi pornografija.

Peter Spiegel ESM’s direct recap plan: Really ‘breaking the link’?
Remember a year ago when eurozone leaders promised to “break the vicious circle” between banks and sovereign governments by allowing the eurozone’s €500bn rescue fund to bailout struggling banks instead of leaving the task to cash-strapped national treasuries?
[...] What happens if a troubled bank is below the legal minimum capital requirements, which is described as having a common tier one equity ratio of 4.5 per cent? “The requesting ESM member will be required to make a capital-injection to reach this level before the ESM enters into the capital of the institution.”
Tai bent pagalba. Pasirodo, vyriausybės (kurias ir buvo žadama gelbėti nuo bankų kapitalo skylių kamšymo) privalės "daryti" bankų kreditoriams ir didiesiems indėlininkams PSI, o trūkumus iki minimaliai teigiamo kapitalo finansuoti mokesčių mokėtojų pinigais. Tik tada ESM gal finansuos likvidumą banko/ų atidarymui.
The paper is littered with other, smaller ways the direct recap tool will be severely limited and burdensome on national governments. The ESM can spend no more than €50bn to €70bn on such recapitalisations, for instance, and even though it will be targeted at banks, it will come with conditions on the “general economic policies of the ESM Member concerned” – so no avoiding a troika team showing up in your national capital on a regular basis.
ESM iš viso tam gal skirs iki 50-70 milijardų eurų, su teise kelti paramos gavėjams politinius reikalavimus. "Įspūdinga" suma. (Vien Graikijos PSI buvo virš 50 milijardų. Skylė balansuose, primenu, virš trilijono).

Susitarimo projektas teikiamas tuo metu, kai eurozonoje vyksta recesija, o iš bankų sektoriaus traukiasi investuotojai - the issuance of senior debt by European banks has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade. ...investors are becoming fearful of becoming bailed in. This year to date EU banks have issued $132bn in senior debt, down from $158bn over [12mo ago], and the lowest total since 2002.

Formuojami negatyvūs lūkesčiai patys kuria krizę, kuriai normalių sprendimų eurosistema pasiūlyti nesugebėjo. Tai aklas atidėliojimas, jau net ne pornografija, o mazochizmas. Pradedu galvot, kuo jie ten užsiiminėja.

Yra neblogas filmas World's Greatest Dad su , kur vienas dundukas bemasturbuodamas pasikaria. Prieš kartodami savo nesąmones, galėtų didaktiniais sumetimais peržiūrėti. Iš adekvatesnės perpektyvos gal ką naudingiau nuveikt sugalvotų?

2013-05-27

Dezintegracija

Eurosistemos trūkumai akivaizdūs vis didesniam skaičiui žmonių. Matias Vernengo: Lafontaine, Flassbeck and Lapavitsas say the euro is over.
Earlier this month Oskar Lafontaine, German Finance Minister in 1998-99 and leader of the Social Democrats before Schröder, asked for the break up of the euro. Now in a more substantive paper Heiner Flassbeck, Lafontaine's second in command in the Finance Ministry, and ex-head of the macro division at UNCTAD, together with Costas Lapavitsas, also suggests that the euro should be undone.
46 puslapių apsaugotas nuo kopijavimo pdf'as: Heiner Flassbeck, Costas Lapavitsas. The Systemic Crisis of the EURO - True Causes and Effective Therapies.