Ellen Brown apie Europos bankų atsakomybės slinktį

July 5, 2013 by Ellen Brown
Think Your Money is Safe in an Insured Bank Account? Think Again.

When Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem told reporters on March 13, 2013, that the Cyprus deposit confiscation scheme would be the template for future European bank bailouts, the statement caused so much furor that he had to retract it. But the “bail in” of depositor funds is now being made official EU policy. On June 26, 2013, The New York Times reported that EU finance ministers have agreed on a plan that shifts the responsibility for bank losses from governments to bank investors, creditors and uninsured depositors.

Insured deposits (those under €100,000, or about $130,000) will allegedly be “fully protected.” But protected by whom? The national insurance funds designed to protect them are inadequate to cover another system-wide banking crisis, and the court of the European Free Trade Association ruled in the case of Iceland that the insurance funds were not intended to cover that sort of systemic collapse.

Shifting the burden of a major bank collapse from the blameless taxpayer to the blameless depositor is another case of robbing Peter to pay Paul, while the real perpetrators carry on with their risky, speculative banking schemes [...]

Although the bail-in template did not hit the news until it was imposed on Cyprus in March 2013, it is a global model that goes back to a directive from the Financial Stability Board (an arm of the Bank for International Settlements) dated October 2011, endorsed at the G20 summit in December 2011. In 2009, the G20 nations agreed to be regulated by the Financial Stability Board; and bail-in policies have now been established for the US, UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada, among other countries. (See earlier articles here and here.)

The EU bail-in plan, which still needs the approval of the European Parliament, would allow European leaders to dodge something they evidently regret having signed, the agreement known as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who played a leading role in imposing the deposit confiscation plan on Cyprus, said on March 13 that “the aim is for the ESM never to have to be used.”

Passed with little publicity in January 2012, the ESM imposes an open-ended debt on EU member governments, putting taxpayers on the hook for whatever the ESM’s overseers demand. Two days before its ratification on July 1, 2012, the agreement was modified to make the permanent bailout fund cover the bailout of private banks. It was a bankers’ dream – a permanent, mandated bailout of private banks by governments. But EU governments are now balking at that heavy commitment.

In Cyprus, the confiscation of depositor funds was not only approved but mandated by the EU, along with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the IMF. They told the Cypriots that deposits below €100,000 in two major bankrupt banks would be subject to a 6.75 percent levy or “haircut,” while those over €100,000 would be hit with a 9.99 percent “fine.” When the Cyprus national legislature overwhelming rejected the levy, the insured deposits under €100,000 were spared; but it was at the expense of the uninsured deposits, which took a much larger hit, estimated at about 60 percent of the deposited funds [...]

While the insured depositors escaped in Cyprus, they might not fare so well in a bank collapse of the sort seen in 2008-09 [...]

Vienintelis įmanomas bankų "stabilumo mechanizmas" Europoje yra ECB.

Bet ne kontrolės. Pradinis bankų sąjungos planas ir buvo tas dvi funkcijas - draudimą ir kontrolę sujungti po ECB stogu, taip sukuriant vieningą pajėgią europinę bankų sistemą. Tai būtų buvusi grandiozinė reforma su savo politiniais pavojais, kurie visiems pasirodė per dideli.

Todėl konstruojamas simuliakras - pusiau Kipro, pusiau Islandijos pusiau rogės, pusiau vežėčios. Raminančios propagandinės pasakos fone nebaigtą konstrukciją tempia pavargusios ekonomikos kuinas, nors girgžda, bet važiuoja. Iki nuokalnėlės.

Overpopulation. Airijos bulvių badas

1799 m. Airija prisijungė prie Didžiosios Britanijos ir pagaliau tapo pilnaverte Jungtinės Karalystės nare.

The passage of the Act in the Irish Parliament was ultimately achieved with substantial majorities, having failed on the first attempt in 1799. According to contemporary documents and historical analysis, this was achieved through a considerable degree of bribery, with funding provided by the British Secret Service Office, and the awarding of peerages, places and honours to secure votes.[51] Thus, Ireland became part of an extended United Kingdom, ruled directly by a united parliament at Westminster in London.

1826 airiai atsisakė nuosavos valiutos. Ekonomika nori nenori turėjo atsakingai susiorientuoti į eksportą. Anglams reikėjo mėsos.

Airijos žemvaldžiams tapo naudinga žemę skirti į eksportą orientuotai gyvulininkystei, todėl nuo geriausių žemių nuvarė nuomininkus, kuriems teko susispausti į pakraščius. Likę ant mažesnių žemės sklypų žmoneliai skurdo ir priverstinai koncentravosi į to, kas būtiniausia prasimaitinimui - bulvių auginimą. 1845-aisias prasidėjus potato blight epidemijai, maždaug trečdalis airių (apie trys milijonai žmonių) mito vien bulvėmis. Milijonas išmirė badu, milijonas emigravo. Airija prarado 20-25% gyventojų.

Ne tai, kad būtų stokoję žemės kitokio maisto užauginimui ir žmonių išmaitinimui. Institucinė struktūra neleido.

Nathan Tankus: Marx on Ireland, Then and Now

Ireland’s experience in the 19th century has implications not only for today, but specifically for modern Ireland. Ireland never really recovered from the great famine. It had net emigration for the rest of the 19th century and most of the 20th century. According to Martin Ruhs of University of Oxford: “In 1996, Ireland reached its migration ‘turning point,’ making it the last EU Member State to become a country of net immigration”. With the onset of the Euro crisis, unemployment in Ireland reached well above 10% and stayed there. As a result, net emigration has returned to Ireland according to the last migration estimates produced by the Central Statistics Office (click to enlarge).

Thus, in Marx’s language, Irish and Eurozone policy has produced a “relative surplus population” and reproduced the conditions which led to net emigration Ireland. The difference is largely in the fact that now Ireland has a social safety net. This may not be true for long, as Ireland implements budget cut after budget cut as the “powers that be” demand. Rather than being pushed by the British however, this austerity is being pushed by the Eurozone and the IMF. Just last week, according to the Irish Examiner,

The International Monetary Fund said Ireland should stick to the terms of the bailout agreement and cut €3.1bn from the Budget in October. The IMF said it was not its job to dictate the terms of the Budget, but said that Ireland needed to continue its track record of fiscal consolidation”.

In other words, the blood-letting continues.

Finally, for those watching the history of currency unions closely, it is interesting to note that the Irish pound was ended in 1826. One major (albeit dated) study of Irish economic history argues that “the suppression of paper money in 1826 the tragic effects of the Great Famine twenty years later were made inevitable”. If this latter point about the Irish pound is true, it implies that Ireland has fallen into another trap similar to the one that plagued it in the 19th century. The difference is that this time Ireland’s politicians gave up autonomy rather then having it yanked from them. Words such as tragedy and farce don’t begin to describe their crisis.

Optimistė

Grybauskaitė: Bankų sąjunga sustiprins ES vidaus rinką

Kuriama Europos Sąjungos (ES) Bankų sąjunga leis atkurti pasitikėjimą bankais, pagerins bankų priežiūrą bei užkirs kelią krizėms, kylančioms dėl bankų pažeidžiamumo, teigia prezidentė Dalia Grybauskaitė.

[...] „Tarp svarbiausių Lietuvos pirmininkavimo darbų - stiprinti finansų sektorių, toliau kuriant Bankų sąjungą. Viena iš sudėtinių jos dalių - bendras bankų pertvarkymo mechanizmas, kuris leistų lengviau valdyti bankų krizes ateityje. O bankams susidūrus su sunkumais, jo pertvarkymo kaštus prisiimtų patys bankai ir taip būtų apsaugomi mokesčių mokėtojų pinigai bei sumažinta grėsmė viešiesiems finansams“

Taip ir bus. Pasimelskime

[...] the fact that there is no plan B tells us that the real reason we are doing this lies elsewhere, which is to be found in the overleveraged European banking system, which is stuffed with bad assets and its too big to Bail. Given that no state, even Germany, is big enough to solve the problem of removing these bad assets from the banking system, they squeeze, add liquidity, and pray. 

Visi viską kuo puikiausiai supranta.
FT Alphaville: A banking union “no go” summary
Bloomberg: How to Kill a Banking Union the German Way
FT: The dangers of Europe’s technocrats

Beveik euro optimistas Mark Blyth

Optimistai galvoja, kad jeigu žiaurosistema taptų netvari, elektoriatas ką nors nubalsuotų geriau. Miela iliuzija

Is it the notion of the “new normal” which retains the politicians and mainstream economist to realize that austerity has failed?

If the “new normal” is a permanent unemployment rate of 20 percent and the constant destruction of productive capacity, then the new normal will not be normal very long. At the end of the day you can’t run a gold standard type if monetary regime, which is what the Euro is in that no one can create the currency that they use and so deprived of inflation and devaluation as options the adjustment to shocks occurs entirely through wages and prices, in a democracy. Eventually someone will vote against it, and at that point the entire project can unravel. 

Nereikėtų turėti iliuzijų dėl tų demokratijų. Bet respect' Mark'ui už idealizmą.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard apie Latviją

Lietuvos BVP atrodo kiek geriau, ir mes neturime tokių įtampų su tautinėm mažumom. Visa kita galime taikyti sau.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Mad Latvia defies its own people to join the euro

EU finance ministers have just given the go-ahead for Latvia to join the euro in January 2014.
No matter that the latest SKDS poll shows that only 22pc of Latvians support this foolish step, and 53pc are opposed.
This is a very odd situation. The elites are pushing ahead with a decision of profound implications, knowing that the nation is not behind them. No country has ever done this before. 

Lietuva.

The concerns of the Latvian people are entirely understandable. Neighbouring Estonia found itself having to bail out Club Med states with a per capita income two and a half times as high after it joined EMU. Latvia may find itself embroiled in an even bigger debacle if the contractionary fiscal and monetary policies of the eurozone push Slovenia, Portugal, Spain, and Italy over a cliff, and push Greece and Cyprus into yet deeper crisis.

Apsimetame, kad krizė nesisteminė, nuostolių galimybę neigiame. Priešingu atveju tektų pripažinti savas klaidas.

It is worth reading the European Commission's report earlier this year on poverty and social exclusion.
Latvia stands out – with Bulgaria – as the country that has seen worst increase in "severe material deprivation", with the rate surging from 19pc to 31pc since 2008. (Bulgaria also has a fixed exchange rate, by the way). 

(Tekste grafikas visoms EU-27 valstybėms. Lietuvos skurdo rodikliai penkti nuo galo.)

While Latvia's unemployment rate has dropped to 11.7pc from a peak of 20.5pc, this is not the full story. Another 7pc have dropped off the rolls (one of the highest rates of discouraged workers in the EU). Roughly 10pc of the population has left the country.
The blue collar working classes have borne the brunt of the deflation strategy, while the affluent middle class with foreign currency mortgages have been protected. Policy has been shaped for the class interest of the elites (sorry to sound like a Marxist, but Marx was good at spotting this kind of abuse). Many who lost their jobs in the crisis – often Russian ethnics – have not found work, and may never do so again in Latvia if they are over 50.
This is how internal devaluations work. They break the back of labour resistance to pay cuts by driving the jobless rate to excruciating levels. The policy is a moral disgrace. Mussolini pulled it off in 1927 with his Blackshirts to secure the Lira Forte, but is that supposed to be a pedigree?

Analogiška situacija. Ironiška, bet pas mus fašizmu vadinamas tautiškumas. Dešimtadalio gyventojų emigracija daro įspūdį nebent kokiems nevykėliams. Išvažiavo ir išvažiavo, ar jau nėra apie ką daugiau kalbėti?

The country's recovery does not vindicate EMU austerity doctrine in any way at all. It merely shows that states with low debt and high exports can survive such a policy.
A low bar, surely?
As for joining the euro, you must be mad.

Kipro zona

Verslo žinioms raportuojant, Šadžiui sapaliojant apie žiaurozonos bankų sąjungą (kurią buvo sutarta įsivesti 2013 pradžioje, bet Vokietija atšoko ir iki šiol atšokusi), Kipre euras nutrupėjo. Kapitalo kontrolė, kurios įvedimo metu kovą buvo šnekama apie "savaitės" laikinumą, taip ir nepanaikinta.

Kipras tapo eurozonos bankų problemų sprendimo etalonu. Bankas uždaromas, jo filialuose užsienyje atsiskaitoma su prioritetiniais klientais, visiems kitiems - garantuotų sumų grąžinimas, bet su kapitalo kontrole, likusių - kapitalizavimas.

Yra cinikų, manančių, kad taip "patvarkius" kokį Ispanijos banką, Eurozona lehman'izuosis į bankų panikos apimtų teritorijų su kapitalo kontrolėmis sąjungą. Viliojanti perspektyva.

Andrew Higgins, NYT - Currency Controls in Cyprus Increase Worry About Euro System

With a gross domestic product of about $23 billion and shrinking, Cyprus is little more than a rounding error in the $9.5 trillion euro zone economy. But Cyprus is also the first nation using the euro to restrict the flow of capital, raising a crucial question: Has the breakup of the euro zone — something European leaders have been struggling to prevent for three years with frantic summit meetings in Brussels and a series of bailout packages worth hundreds of billions of euros — in fact already started?

President Nicos Anastasiades of Cyprus certainly thinks so. “Actually, we are already out of the euro zone,” he said, citing restrictions on the movement of euros from Cyprus as evidence that his country’s money now has a different status and value from that in France, Germany and the 14 other European Union nations that use the currency. [...]

The rules of the European Union, enshrined in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, ban restrictions on the movement of capital, but the measures by Cyprus have been endorsed by the European Central Bank and the union’s executive arm, the European Commission, as essential to prevent money from fleeing the country. While the European Central Bank declined to comment on the Cyprus situation, officials in Brussels say they remain firmly committed to maintaining the euro as a single currency.

Nevertheless, many financial experts say Cyprus has, in effect, made a “silent, hidden exit” from the euro, said Guntram B. Wolff, the director of Bruegel, a Brussels research group. Despite a softening of restrictions, he added, “the euro in Cyprus is still not the same as a euro in Frankfurt.

Maastricht'o sutartis, ištikus Kipro krizei, ignoruojama. Kokia tikimybė, kad per eilinį paaštrėjimą bus laikomasi (jeigu bus pasirašytos) bankų sąjungos sutarčių?

John Harvey apie neoliberalizmą

Taip jau surėdyta, kad žmonėms reikia turėti nuomonę apie dalykus, kurių jie negali suprasti. Nebūtina aiškintis priežasčių, užtenka konstatuoti, kad nuo pat vaikystės turime keisčiausių nuomonių apie aplinkinį pasaulį, kurios mums visai netrukdo, o net padeda gyventi.

Šulinyje gyvena boba žaliaakė.
Vaikučius randa kopūstuose.
Valgyk košytę, augsi didelis.
Dovanėles atnešė zuikis nuo Kalėdų senelio.
 
... evoliucija tikėjimo tvirtybės išbandymui...
... oi, koks panašus į tėvelį...

Galime tikėti įvairiausiais dalykais, jeigu tai padeda ar bent netrukdo gyventi.

Naujienų filtre ką tik iškrito puikiai surašytas John Harvey paaiškinimas, kad neoliberalizmas jau visiškai trukdo.
Ireland: No more austerity (and dump the euro)

Just days ago, it was reported that Ireland appears to be in recession once again (Ireland falls back into recession). How can this be given the rapid growth of the Celtic Tiger just a few years ago? Actually, this comes as no surprise to many economists because the so-called solutions being implemented are a function of the very same principles that caused the collapse in the first place. Unless a significant about-turn is executed, stagnation, emigration, and unemployment will continue for years to come.

That culprit is the philosophy of neoliberalism. It argues, among other things, that unregulated financial markets efficiently price assets, higher profits are good for everyone as they lead to increased employment and wages (the so-called trickle down effect), and governments represent a net drag on economic activity. Neoliberalism has been a powerful force driving world economic policy since the 1980s and as such laid the groundwork for many of the problems we are experiencing today. Ireland was not immune to these influences and, as a consequence, policy makers lowered corporate tax rates, made transfer pricing rules business-friendly, and adopted a largely hands-off approach to financial regulation (even when improprieties emerged). Dropping the punt in favor of the euro was also seen as a sign of economic responsibility because it linked Irish policy to that of the fiscally-prudent Germans.

:(

Propagandos pergalės. Degradavimas gerėja.

2013 m. birželio 3 d Europos centrinio banko vadovas: atsigavimas – jau čia pat

Europos centriniam bankui (ECB) sušvelninus savo monetarinę politiką ir išaugus paklausai eksporto rinkose, euro zonos ekonomika antrąjį šių metų pusmetį ims atsigauti, apie tai pirmadienį kalbėdamas tarptautinėje finansų konferencijoje Šanchajuje sakė ECB vadovas Mario Draghi.

"Ekonominė situacija euro zonoje tebėra sudėtinga, bet atsirado galimos stabilizacijos požymių, ir nuo antrojo šių metų pusmečio prognozuojamas laipsniškas atsigavimas", - sakė jis.

ECB vadovas taip pat paragino problemines ES šalis dėti daugiau pastangų sumažinti savo šalies biudžeto deficitą.

[...] "Šalys gali vykdyti reformas be OMT ir išsaugoti savo ekonominį suverenumą, arba jos gali pertvarkyti savo ekonomiką su OMT pagalba ir atsisakyti dalies savo ekonominio suverenumo, - M. Draghi žodžius, pasakytus tarptautinėje finansų konferencijoje Šanchajuje, cituoja "Associated Press".

Austerity Blitz: Eurozone Notes From Beyond the Grave
Tuesday, 02 July 2013, by CJ Polychroniou, Truthout

The capacity of the political elite to manipulate public opinion should never be underestimated. A glaring example is the case of Greece, where the government's propaganda in portraying an economic catastrophe and the conversion of a sovereign nation into a banana republic as a "success story" seems to be paying off dividends, as the latest polls show the gap between the conservative party and the Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, widening. French President Francois Hollande, who managed to become the most unpopular French president after only a few months in power, seemed to be following the same route when he declared on a recent trip to Japan that the euro zone crisis is over

[...] leading actors in the EU /.../ opted from the start to seek to exorcise the demons of financial instability and turmoil not through the use of expansionary fiscal policy tools, but by reliance on tough austerity measures and mindless fiscal consolidation. They do this without any consideration at all for the damage these policies inflict on human lives and the social fabric of societies in general. As one major study pointedly reveals, austerity indeed kills.(1)

[...] Lacking a federal structure and a democratic form of governance, the Euroland has evolved into a peculiar type of an empire whereby the core seeks to maintain its privileged position by pursuing policies detrimental to the periphery. Hence the great imbalances in the euro zone and the widening divide between North and South; hence also the conversion of the euro into a currency with a double function: providing a competitive advantage for the advanced nations of the North and serving as an albatross around the neck of the less developed nations of the South.

In the course of the crisis, the core has also attempted to convert the peripherals into colonies as a means of controlling the spread of the crisis throughout the euro zone.

[...] policies pursued by Brussels and Berlin are depriving the indebted euro zone member states of their sovereign status and are making a mockery of democratic processes and institutions.

As things stand, the euro zone is doomed to collapse. It lacks a banking or fiscal union and its hegemon is playing the role of a debt collector - all while national economies are collapsing and human lives are being destroyed.